Trade deficits aren’t as bad as you think

Although the amount of U.S. imports and exports has varied greatly over time, in recent years, the U.S. has been running trade deficits. Some people react to such trade deficits with doom and gloom; others cite them as evidence that foreign governments are not playing fair in U.S. markets; still others argue that deficits demonstrate that we are living beyond our means. In “Trade Deficits Aren’t as Bad as You Think,” George Alessandria offers an alternative view: Trade deficits have benefits. They shift worldwide production to its most productive locations, and they allow individuals to smooth out their consumption over the business cycle.Trade

Why are goods so cheap in some countries?

Looking around the world, we observe substantial differences across countries in prices for most goods. These price differences also tend to be positively correlated with income differences, so that citizens of high-income countries tend to pay more for the same goods than citizens in low-income countries. In “Why Are Goods So Cheap in Some Countries?,” George Alessandria and Joseph Kaboski summarize some of the evidence related to the big price differences across countries for a broad set of goods. They then discuss the relationship between prices and income levels and some possible explanations for that relationship.Prices

Trade and the (Dis)Incentive to Reform Labor Markets: The Case of Reform in the European Union

In a closed economy general equilibrium model, Hopenhayn and Rogerson (1993) find large welfare gains to removing firing restrictions. We explore the extent to which international trade alters this result. When economies trade, labor market policies in one country spill over to other countries through their effect on the terms of trade. A key finding in the open economy is that the share of the welfare gains from domestic labor market reform exported substantially exceeds the share of goods exported. In our baseline case, 105 percent of the welfare gains are exported even though the domestic economy only exports 30 percent of its goods. Thus, with international trade a country receives little to no benefit, and possibly even loses, from unilaterally reforming its labor market. A coordinated elimination of firing taxes yields considerable benefits. We find the welfare gains to the U.K. from labor market reform by its continental trading partners of 0.21 percent of steady state consumption. This insight provides some explanation for recent efforts toward labor market reform in the European Union.Firing Costs, International Trade, Labor Market Reform

Do sunk costs of exporting matter for net export dynamics?

Not all firms export every period. Firms enter and exit foreign markets. Previous research has suggested that these export participation decisions have significant aggregate implications. In particular, it has been argued that these export decisions are important for the comovements of net exports and the real exchange rate. In this paper, the authors evaluate these predictions in a general equilibrium environment. Specifically, assuming that firms face an up-front, sunk cost of entering foreign markets and a smaller period-by-period continuation cost, they derive the discrete entry and exit decisions yielding exporter dynamics in an otherwise standard equilibrium open economy business cycle model. The authors show that the export decisions of firms in the model are influenced by the business cycle in a manner consistent with evidence presented for U.S. exporters. However, in contrast to previous partial equilibrium analyses, model results reveal that the aggregate effects of these export decisions are negligible.Exports ; Foreign exchange rates

Pricing-to-market and the failure of absolute PPP

The authors show that deviations from the law of one price in tradable goods are an important source of violations of absolute PPP across countries. Using highly disaggregated export data, they document systematic international price discrimination: at the U.S. dock, U.S. exporters ship the same good to low-income countries at lower prices. This pricing-to-market is about twice as important as any local non-traded inputs, such as distribution costs, in explaining the differences in tradable prices across countries. The authors propose a model of consumer search that generates pricing-to-market. In this model, consumers in low-income countries have a comparative advantage in producing non-traded, non-market search activities and therefore are more price sensitive than consumers in high-income countries. They present cross-country time use evidence and evidence from U.S. export prices that are consistent with the model.

Establishment heterogeneity, exporter dynamics, and the effects of trade liberalization

The authors study a variation of the Melitz (2003) model, a monopolistically competitive model with heterogeneity in productivity across establishments and fixed costs of exporting. They calibrate the model to match the employment size distribution of US manufacturing establishments. Export participation in the calibrated model is then compared to the data on US manufacturing exporters. With fixed costs of starting to export about 3.9 times as large as costs of continuing as an exporter, the model can match both the size distribution of exporters and transition into and out of exporting. The calibrated model is then used to estimate the effect of reducing tariffs on welfare, trade, and export participation. The authors find sizeable gains to moving to free trade. Contrary to the view that the gains to lowering tariffs are larger in models with export decisions, they find that steady state consumption increases by less in their benchmark model of exporting than in a similar model without fixed costs. However, they also find that comparisons of steady state consumption understate the welfare gains to trade reform in models with fixed costs and overstate the welfare gains in models without fixed costs. With fixed costs, tariffs lead to an overaccumulation of product varieties which can be used more effectively along the transition to the new steady state. Thus, following trade liberalizations economic activity overshoots its steady state, with the peak in output coming 10 years after the trade reform. Finally, the authors explore the impact of the key modelling assumptions in the theoretical literature for quantitative results.Trade ; Tariff ; Exports

The exchange rate: what's in it for prices?

Large movements in the exchange rate are quite common, and they substantially alter one's purchasing power when traveling abroad. Yet these exchange rate movements tend to have a smaller impact on the price of foreign goods that are imported. Following an appreciation of the euro against the dollar, European firms selling products to American firms for import do not raise their prices by nearly as much as the prices they charge consumers in the European market. Similarly, American firms sell their products at higher prices in Europe than at home. This incomplete, or partial, pass-through of exchange rate movements to domestic import prices is important for inflation, American purchasing power, and the pattern of trade between countries. In this article, George Alessandria and Jarcy Zee discuss some of the reasons why changes in the exchange rate may not be fully passed through to import prices.Prices

Understanding exports from the plant up

Some companies export their products abroad, while others choose to sell only in their home market. Similarly, over time, some nonexporters become exporters and some exporters stop exporting. The decision to export is a big, important decision for an organization, one that takes time and resources but one that can lead to an expansion of sales and profits. Policymakers recognize that although exporting isn’t easy, it can boost sales and create jobs when successful. To help in this process, many states devote substantial resources to encouraging exports, including loans, trade missions, and trade fairs. Even the federal government has policies that encourage exporting, providing special tax treatment of profits on export sales and low-interest loans. In “Understanding Exports from the Plant Up,” George Alessandria and Horag Choi discuss some key factors that affect companies’ decisions to export by describing some salient characteristics of establishments that export and then building a simple model of the decision to export that captures these features.Exports

Inventories, lumpy trade, and large devaluations

Fixed transaction costs and delivery lags are important costs of international trade. These costs lead firms to import infrequently and hold substantially larger inventories of imported goods than domestic goods. Using multiple sources of data, we document these facts. We then show that a parsimoniously parameterized model economy with importers facing an (S, s)-type inventory management problem successfully accounts for these features of the data. Moreover, the model can account for import and import price dynamics in the aftermath of large devaluations. In particular, desired inventory adjustment in response to a sudden, large increase in the relative price of imported goods creates a short-term trade implosion, an immediate, temporary drop in the value and number of distinct varieties imported, as well as a slow increase in the retail price of imported goods. Our study of six current account reversals following large devaluation episodes in the last decade provide strong support for the model's predictions.

Inventories, lumpy trade, and large devaluations

Fixed transaction costs and delivery lags are important costs of international trade. These costs lead firms to import infrequently and hold substantially larger inventories of imported goods than domestic goods. Using multiple sources of data, we document these facts. We then show that a parsimoniously parameterized model economy with importers facing an (S, s)-type inventory management problem successfully accounts for these features of the data. Moreover, the model can account for import and import price dynamics in the aftermath of large devaluations. In particular, desired inventory adjustment in response to a sudden, large increase in the relative price of imported goods creates a short-term trade implosion, an immediate, temporary drop in the value and number of distinct varieties imported, as well as a slow increase in the retail price of imported goods. Our study of 6 current account reversals following large devaluation episodes in the last decade provide strong support for the model’s predictions.Trade ; Inventories